Crazy Bets

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Raw STATUS.md

# Crazy Bets

> Humans vs. Machines: A Prediction Market Battle Royale

## Status: MVP Complete

**Linear:** [MIN-930](https://linear.app/hippochat/issue/MIN-930/crazy-bets-prediction-tracking-webapp)
**Project:** [Crazy Bets](https://linear.app/hippochat/project/d51fb3965fd2)

## Overview

Annual prediction market game where participants:
- Make bold predictions with confidence levels
- Bet FOR or AGAINST each other's predictions
- Compete for the highest return on their 100-chip portfolio

Features humans vs. AI competition (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini).

## Tech Stack

- **Framework:** React + Vite + TypeScript
- **Styling:** Tailwind CSS (brutalist dark theme)
- **Storage:** JSON files (config-driven, easy to edit)
- **Font:** JetBrains Mono

## Data Files

```
src/data/
├── config.json       # Game settings, mechanics
├── participants.json # Players (humans + AIs)
├── predictions.json  # All predictions by year
└── bets.json         # All chip allocations
```

## Core Features

- **Leaderboard** - Rankings by return %, P&L tracking
- **Predictions View** - Expandable cards with betting breakdown
- **How It Works** - Full explanation of betting mechanics
- **Year Toggle** - Switch between 2025 (historical) and 2026 (active)
- **Consensus Bar** - Visual FOR/AGAINST chip distribution

## Betting Mechanics

- 100 chips per participant
- Bet FOR (+chips) or AGAINST (-chips)
- Returns based on inverse probability:
  - Bet FOR, outcome TRUE → gain = chips × (1 - confidence)
  - Bet AGAINST, outcome FALSE → gain = chips × confidence
  - Wrong bet → lose all chips

## Progress

- [x] Project scaffolded
- [x] Data model + calculation engine
- [x] Leaderboard component
- [x] Predictions component with expandable details
- [x] How It Works documentation
- [x] 2025 sample data (historical, resolved)
- [x] 2026 predictions + AI bets seeded
- [x] Brutalist dark theme styling
- [ ] Admin panel for data entry
- [ ] Actual participant data entry
- [ ] Deployment

## Running Locally

```bash
cd ~/.openclaw/workspaces/main/projects/crazy-bets
npm run dev
# Visit http://localhost:5173
```

## Next Steps

1. Add real participant handles/bets for 2026
2. Build admin panel for resolving predictions
3. Deploy to Vercel

---

*Created: 2026-02-12*
*Last Updated: 2026-02-12*

Last activity: 2026-04-02

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Raw STATUS.md

# Crazy Bets > Humans vs. Machines: A Prediction Market Battle Royale ## Status: MVP Complete **Linear:** [MIN-930](https://linear.app/hippochat/issue/MIN-930/crazy-bets-prediction-tracking-webapp) **Project:** [Crazy Bets](https://linear.app/hippochat/project/d51fb3965fd2) ## Overview Annual prediction market game where participants: - Make bold predictions with confidence levels - Bet FOR or AGAINST each other's predictions - Compete for the highest return on their 100-chip portfolio Features humans vs. AI competition (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini). ## Tech Stack - **Framework:** React + Vite + TypeScript - **Styling:** Tailwind CSS (brutalist dark theme) - **Storage:** JSON files (config-driven, easy to edit) - **Font:** JetBrains Mono ## Data Files ``` src/data/ ├── config.json # Game settings, mechanics ├── participants.json # Players (humans + AIs) ├── predictions.json # All predictions by year └── bets.json # All chip allocations ``` ## Core Features - **Leaderboard** - Rankings by return %, P&L tracking - **Predictions View** - Expandable cards with betting breakdown - **How It Works** - Full explanation of betting mechanics - **Year Toggle** - Switch between 2025 (historical) and 2026 (active) - **Consensus Bar** - Visual FOR/AGAINST chip distribution ## Betting Mechanics - 100 chips per participant - Bet FOR (+chips) or AGAINST (-chips) - Returns based on inverse probability: - Bet FOR, outcome TRUE → gain = chips × (1 - confidence) - Bet AGAINST, outcome FALSE → gain = chips × confidence - Wrong bet → lose all chips ## Progress - [x] Project scaffolded - [x] Data model + calculation engine - [x] Leaderboard component - [x] Predictions component with expandable details - [x] How It Works documentation - [x] 2025 sample data (historical, resolved) - [x] 2026 predictions + AI bets seeded - [x] Brutalist dark theme styling - [ ] Admin panel for data entry - [ ] Actual participant data entry - [ ] Deployment ## Running Locally ```bash cd ~/.openclaw/workspaces/main/projects/crazy-bets npm run dev # Visit http://localhost:5173 ``` ## Next Steps 1. Add real participant handles/bets for 2026 2. Build admin panel for resolving predictions 3. Deploy to Vercel --- *Created: 2026-02-12* *Last Updated: 2026-02-12*